I am a fifth-year Statistics PhD student at UChicago working with Rebecca Willett and Rina Foygel Barber. I develop statistical theory and methods for reliable probabilistic prediction and uncertainty quantification. My work focuses on calibration and conformal prediction, with an emphasis on finite-sample and distribution-free guarantees, post-hoc methods for black-box predictors, and connections to downstream decision-making. I am also interested in the evaluation of probabilistic models, including the design of proper scoring rules that capture spatial aspects of forecast quality while remaining principled and computationally practical. Much of my work is motivated by applications in weather and climate forecasting.

Email: raphaelr [a t] uchicago [d o t] e d u